Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to accrue 4.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among TEs.
Mike Gesicki has accumulated a monstrous 52.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Mike Gesicki has been among the bottom tight ends in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.01 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 6th percentile.

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