Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 3:46 AM EST

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will be starting backup QB Teddy Bridgewater in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Mike Gesicki's receiving effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, accumulating 8.40 yards-per-target vs a mere 6.84 figure last season.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
Mike Gesicki has been less involved as a potential target this year (54.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.3%).
Mike Gesicki has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (28.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).
Mike Gesicki has totaled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (23.0) this season than he did last season (43.0).
Mike Gesicki has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football among tight ends, catching a mere 65.4% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 22nd percentile.

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