Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 5:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 66.5% pass rate.
Mike Gesicki's receiving efficiency has improved this year, accumulating 8.12 yards-per-target vs a mere 6.84 figure last year.
Mike Gesicki's ability to generate extra yardage has gotten better this season, compiling 3.88 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 2.85 rate last season.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (79.7%) versus tight ends this year (79.7%).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a big 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
Mike Gesicki has been used less as a potential target this season (55.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (78.3%).

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