Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-most in football.

Favors Under

Mike Gesicki has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (56.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (78.3%).
Mike Gesicki has notched quite a few less air yards this year (30.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Mike Gesicki has put up significantly fewer receiving yards per game (24.0) this season than he did last season (43.0).
Mike Gesicki has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among tight ends, catching just 65.6% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 23rd percentile.

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