Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Mike Gesicki's receiving effectiveness has been refined this season, notching 8.53 yards-per-target vs just 6.84 rate last season.
Mike Gesicki's talent in picking up extra yardage have improved this season, averaging 3.96 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 2.85 rate last season.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
Mike Gesicki has been used less as a potential target this season (56.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (78.3%).
Mike Gesicki has notched far fewer air yards this year (29.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).

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