Mike Gesicki Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+258/-437).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +345 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +258.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Mike Gesicki's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 67.2% to 75.4%.
Mike Gesicki grades out in the 94th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.43 per game.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has conceded the 8th-highest Completion% in the league (78.9%) versus TEs this year (78.9%).
The Detroit Lions defense has surrendered the 5th-most TDs through the air in the league to TEs: 0.67 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing game near the end zone this week (14.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (23.3% in games he has played).
Mike Gesicki has compiled far fewer air yards this year (36.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).
Mike Gesicki's 23.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 42.4.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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