Mike Gesicki Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+296/-536).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +358 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +296.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Mike Gesicki's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 67.2% to 85.3%.
Mike Gesicki ranks in the 94th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.50 per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 57.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (11.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (19.2% in games he has played).
Mike Gesicki has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this year (31.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).

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