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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins

Mike Gesicki Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+332/-625).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +344 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +332.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.

Mike Gesicki has notched a colossal 49.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among tight ends.

Mike Gesicki's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.2% to 100.0%.

The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has conceded the 8th-highest Completion% in the NFL (74.9%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (74.9%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to be a less important option in his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (9.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.4% in games he has played).

Mike Gesicki's 12.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 42.4.

The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

The Miami Dolphins O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

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