Mike Gesicki Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:55 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+425/-949).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -932 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -949.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
Mike Gesicki has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 13.6% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
Mike Gesicki has notched a monstrous 53.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among tight ends.
Mike Gesicki's 40.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 91st percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (67.5%) to TEs since the start of last season (67.5%).
The Miami Dolphins offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.