Mike Gesicki Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+350/-681).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -663 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -681.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Mike Gesicki ranks in the 90th percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.33 per game.
The Miami Dolphins have utilized play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to be a much smaller part of his team's passing game near the goal line this week (12.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (18.5% in games he has played).
Mike Gesicki has notched far fewer air yards this year (29.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).

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