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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins

Mike Gesicki Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+371/-749).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -743 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -749.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

Mike Gesicki's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% increasing from 67.2% to 70.6%.

Mike Gesicki grades out in the 89th percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.36 per game.

The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to be a much smaller part of his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (12.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (18.9% in games he has played).

Mike Gesicki has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (32.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).

Mike Gesicki's 21.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 42.4.

More Mike Gesicki Player Props

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