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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns

Mike Gesicki Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+309/-558).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +321 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +309.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Mike Gesicki's ball-catching skills have improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 67.2% to 73.8%.

Mike Gesicki ranks in the 95th percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.44 per game.

The Cleveland Browns safeties rank as the 3rd-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.

THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (13.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (19.5% in games he has played).

More Mike Gesicki Player Props

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