Mike Gesicki Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+283/-488).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +287 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +283.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Mike Gesicki has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 13.8% since the start of last season, which places him in the 78th percentile among tight ends.
Mike Gesicki has accrued a colossal 56.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among TEs.
Mike Gesicki's 42.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 91st percentile for tight ends.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The New England Patriots pass defense has allowed the lowest Completion% in the league (57.4%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (57.4%).
The New England Patriots defense has yielded the 6th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends: 0.24 per game since the start of last season.