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Mike Evans

Mike Evans Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buccaneers to pass on 62.1% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.

The New Orleans Saints defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (41.4 per game) this year.

In this contest, Mike Evans is anticipated by the projections to finish in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.0 targets.

Mike Evans has been in the 90th percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) with a superb 66.2 figure this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.0 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.

The 5th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Buccaneers this year (a measly 53.2 per game on average).

This year, the fierce Saints defense has conceded a measly 62.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 9th-smallest rate in football.

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