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Mike Evans

Mike Evans Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 132.3 total plays run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

The model projects Mike Evans to garner 9.1 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs.

Mike Evans's 68.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 97th percentile for wide receivers.

The Buccaneers offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 4-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical game plan.

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.

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