Mike Evans Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-135/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 61.5% of their plays: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this contest, Mike Evans is anticipated by the projections to find himself in the 86th percentile among wide receivers with 8.3 targets.
The Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (just 56.7 per game on average).
Mike Evans has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (77.1% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (89.6%).
The Houston cornerbacks profile as the 3rd-best collection of CBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

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