Mike Evans Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect Mike Evans to accumulate 8.0 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point boost in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Mike Evans has been more prominently relied on in his team's passing offense.
The Tampa Bay O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.
With an exceptional 4.7 adjusted receptions per game (82nd percentile) this year, Mike Evans has been among the best pass-catching WRs in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 6.0% more towards the run game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 55.3% of their chances: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are predicted by the model to run only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (just 55.6 per game on average).

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