Mike Evans Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 62.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Mike Evans to accumulate 8.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
Mike Evans's 58.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 85th percentile for wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Saints pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (54.8%) versus wide receivers this year (54.8%).
The Saints defensive tackles project as the 6th-best DT corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.

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