Mike Evans Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects Mike Evans to garner 8.4 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
Mike Evans's 70.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 55.0.
Mike Evans is positioned as one of the leading WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a remarkable 4.6 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.
This year, the shaky Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered a colossal 69.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 5th-worst rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are anticipated by the model to run only 63.4 total plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.
Mike Evans's 58.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this year conveys a substantial decline in his receiving proficiency over last year's 61.0% figure.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Green Bay's CB corps has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 10th-best in the league.

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