Mike Evans Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:17 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+102/-132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this week's contest, Mike Evans is predicted by the projection model to find himself in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 9.6 targets.
Mike Evans's 72.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 55.0.
Mike Evans profiles as one of the leading wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 5.0 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.
The Falcons pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61.6%) versus wideouts this year (61.6%).

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