Mike Evans Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast Mike Evans to accrue 7.6 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Mike Evans's 62.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 55.0.
When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Buccaneers ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.
Mike Evans checks in as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a remarkable 4.5 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.
The Titans pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (74.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (74.6%).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive strategy to tilt 4.8% more towards running than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 62.5 total plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 56.8 plays per game.

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