Mike Evans Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-143).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 68.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 134.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
Mike Evans has run a route on 88.6% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

Mike Evans's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.9% to 62.3%.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.3%) to wideouts this year (64.3%).
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized play action on a mere 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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