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Mike Evans

Mike Evans Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders

Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 76.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 74.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 76.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football (62.0% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Buccaneers.

The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buccaneers this year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).

Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower run volume.

In this contest, Mike Evans is projected by the projection model to slot into the 90th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.6 targets.

Mike Evans places in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) with a staggering 69.7 mark this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a 3-point favorite this week.

The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Commanders, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (just 28.9 per game) this year.

After accumulating 116.0 air yards per game last season, Mike Evans has posted significant losses this season, now pacing 99.0 per game.

Mike Evans's 3.05 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a meaningful regression in his effectiveness in the open field over last year's 4.1% figure.

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