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Mike Evans

Mike Evans Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 65.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 70.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (62.6% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Buccaneers.

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may suffer.

Our trusted projections expect Mike Evans to accumulate 8.6 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.

Mike Evans's 65.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 92nd percentile for WRs.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all air attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

After accumulating 118.0 air yards per game last year, Mike Evans has significantly declined this year, currently sitting at 84.0 per game.

This year, the formidable Chargers pass defense has given up the 10th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a puny 3.9 YAC.

The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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