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Mike Evans

Mike Evans Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Las Vegas Raiders

Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 76.5 (-122/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 69.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 76.5 @ -122.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 8th-most pass-focused team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.3% pass rate.

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may fall-off.

The predictive model expects Mike Evans to earn 8.8 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

The model projects Mike Evans to be a more integral piece of his team's pass game this week (26.7% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (20.9% in games he has played).

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Buccaneers being a huge 7-point favorite in this game.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have just 127.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-fewest out of all the games this week.

Mike Evans has accrued far fewer air yards this year (84.0 per game) than he did last year (118.0 per game).

Mike Evans's 2.97 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year conveys a significant regression in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last year's 4.1% rate.

This year, the formidable Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered a mere 137.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing WRs: the 10th-fewest in the league.

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