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Mike Evans

Mike Evans Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

New York Giants vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 50.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.2% pass rate.

The Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (70.1%) to wide receivers this year (70.1%).

As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, New York's collection of safeties has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 7th-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buccaneers are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see only 126.8 plays on offense run: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.

The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

Opposing offenses have averaged 28.7 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: fewest in football.

Mike Evans has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (78.0 per game) than he did last season (118.0 per game).

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