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Mike Evans

Mike Evans Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 54.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 56.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 61.5% of their plays: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week.

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

In this contest, Mike Evans is anticipated by the projections to find himself in the 86th percentile among wide receivers with 8.3 targets.

The Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.

The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (just 56.7 per game on average).

Mike Evans has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (77.1% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (89.6%).

After averaging 117.0 air yards per game last season, Mike Evans has produced significantly less this season, currently pacing 104.0 per game.

Mike Evans has put up substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (62.0) this season than he did last season (72.0).

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