Mike Evans Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.6 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in the NFL.
In this contest, Mike Evans is forecasted by the projections to position himself in the 80th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.7 targets.
Mike Evans's 70.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 55.0.
In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Buccaneers profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 6.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The projections expect the Buccaneers as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are forecasted by the projection model to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (a lowly 56.2 per game on average).
After accruing 117.0 air yards per game last year, Mike Evans has gotten worse this year, currently sitting at 105.0 per game.