Mike Evans Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 62.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Mike Evans to accumulate 8.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
As it relates to air yards, Mike Evans grades out in the lofty 99th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, accumulating a monstrous 118.0 per game.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Saints pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (54.8%) versus wide receivers this year (54.8%).
The Saints pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against wideouts this year, giving up 6.57 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-fewest in football.
The Saints defensive tackles project as the 6th-best DT corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.

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