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Mike Evans

Mike Evans Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints

Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 62.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 64.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 132.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.

In this game, Mike Evans is expected by the projection model to position himself in the 89th percentile among WRs with 8.3 targets.

Mike Evans has notched a massive 121.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile among wideouts.

Mike Evans's 68.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 55.0.

With an outstanding 71.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (90th percentile) this year, Mike Evans has been among the best wide receivers in the game in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 11th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The Saints pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58.5%) vs. WRs this year (58.5%).

As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, New Orleans's collection of LBs has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 5th-best in football.

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