Mike Evans Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 6:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 70.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 70.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects Mike Evans to garner 8.4 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
Mike Evans has put up far more air yards this season (130.0 per game) than he did last season (117.0 per game).
Mike Evans's 70.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 55.0.
Mike Evans checks in as one of the top wide receivers in the game this year, averaging an exceptional 69.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are anticipated by the model to run only 63.4 total plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.
Mike Evans's 58.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this year conveys a substantial decline in his receiving proficiency over last year's 61.0% figure.
The Green Bay Packers defense has given up the 10th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 145.0) versus wideouts this year.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Green Bay's CB corps has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 10th-best in the league.

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