Mike Evans Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 64.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect Mike Evans to accrue 8.7 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
Mike Evans has compiled quite a few more air yards this year (128.0 per game) than he did last year (117.0 per game).
Mike Evans's 68.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 55.0.
With an impressive 71.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (90th percentile) this year, Mike Evans has been as one of the best WRs in the league in the NFL.
Mike Evans's 4.28 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season shows a noteworthy gain in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season's 2.6% figure.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive strategy to tilt 4.6% more towards the run game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their usual approach.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
The Carolina Panthers defense has yielded the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 121.0) versus wideouts this year.

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