Mike Evans Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 65.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 69.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 61.2% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Mike Evans to total 8.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among wideouts.
After totaling 117.0 air yards per game last season, Mike Evans has shown good development this season, currently boasting 128.0 per game.
Mike Evans's 66.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 55.0.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive scheme to tilt 4.3% more towards the rushing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
Opposing teams have played at the 10th-slowest pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Buccaneers defense this year, averaging 28.03 seconds per play.
This year, the tough Indianapolis Colts pass defense has yielded the 8th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a paltry 3.4 YAC.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties rank as the 4th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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