Mike Evans Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are giant -13.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.7 per game) this year.
This week, Mike Evans is anticipated by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 89th percentile among WRs with 8.1 targets.
In regards to air yards, Mike Evans grades out in the towering 98th percentile among wide receivers this year, accruing a massive 120.0 per game.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are anticipated by the projections to run just 60.0 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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