Mike Evans Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-101/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 60.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 60.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Evans to accrue 8.4 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
Mike Evans has accrued significantly more air yards this season (111.0 per game) than he did last season (99.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.33 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the NFL.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

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