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Mike Evans

Mike Evans Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams

Mike Evans Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+135/-186).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +139 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.

Mike Evans has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.0% this year, which puts him in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.

Mike Evans has accumulated far more air yards this year (120.0 per game) than he did last year (99.0 per game).

Mike Evans's 57.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 46.9.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 3rd-least in football.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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