Mike Evans Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +126 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Mike Evans has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which ranks in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
Mike Evans has compiled a whopping 102.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among WRs.
Mike Evans's 49.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 81st percentile for wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on just 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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