Mike Evans Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-300).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense to be the fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 25.22 seconds per snap.
Mike Evans has totaled significantly more air yards this season (110.0 per game) than he did last season (102.0 per game).
Mike Evans's 52.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 82nd percentile for wideouts.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Mike Evans's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.9% to 62.6%.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 9th-least TDs through the air in football to WRs: 0.75 per game this year.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on just 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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