Mike Evans Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
Mike Evans has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 18.2% this year, which ranks him in the 78th percentile among WRs.
Mike Evans has accrued significantly more air yards this season (111.0 per game) than he did last season (99.0 per game).
Mike Evans's 55.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 46.9.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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