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Mike Davis

Mike Davis Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 1

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Mike Davis Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+223/-347).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -309 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -347.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 45.9% red zone run rate.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have called the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 68.8 plays per game.
  • Opposing offenses have run for the most TDs in football (1.65 per game) against the New York Jets defense since the start of last season.
  • The New York Jets linebackers profile as the worst collection of LBs in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
  • The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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