Mike Davis Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Mike Davis

NFL · Player Props

Mike Davis

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing TD

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Davis Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+223/-347).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -309 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -347.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 45.9% red zone run rate.
The Baltimore Ravens have called the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 68.8 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have run for the most TDs in football (1.65 per game) against the New York Jets defense since the start of last season.
The New York Jets linebackers profile as the worst collection of LBs in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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