Mike Boone Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Mike Boone

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 18, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Boone Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (+101/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Boone to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (24.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.6% in games he has played).
The Denver Broncos offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in run blocking.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has produced the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up 6.28 yards-per-carry.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 2nd-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 38.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.