Mike Boone Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Mike Boone

NFL · Player Props

Mike Boone

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Boone Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends rank as the 3rd-worst unit in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Broncos are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 8th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 37.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Mike Boone has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this year, staying on the field for 21.8% of snaps vs just 8.1% last year.
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 107 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.

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