Mike Boone Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Mike Boone

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 7, 2022 12:15 AM EST

Analysis

Mike Boone Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Mike Boone has been more involved as a potential target this season (19.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (7.5%).
Mike Boone has accumulated a whopping 8.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Mike Boone has been among the most hard-handed receivers in football among running backs, completing a mere 35.4% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 4th percentile.
Mike Boone has been among the least effective receivers in the league among running backs, averaging just 2.34 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 16th percentile.