Michael Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Michael Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Michael Wilson

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+220/-315).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +220.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals may throw the ball less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
The Cardinals are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 59.8% of their downs: the 10th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.06 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Cardinals have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
In regards to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Cardinals ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year.
This year, the formidable Baltimore Ravens defense has yielded a meager 62.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 10th-best rate in the league.
The Ravens safeties profile as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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