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Michael Wilson

Michael Wilson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Buffalo Bills vs Arizona Cardinals

Michael Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Cardinals being a huge -7-point underdog this week.

Michael Wilson has run a route on 86.2% of his team's passing plays last year, putting him in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.

Michael Wilson has accounted for a colossal 25.8% of his offense's air yards last year: 81st percentile among wideouts.

With a remarkable 9.5 adjusted yards per target (76th percentile) last year, Michael Wilson rates as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers in football.

Last year, the shaky Bills pass defense has allowed a massive 70.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Cardinals as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Cardinals to run the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Cardinals have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this week's contest.

Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being called for in this game) typically cause worse passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased run volume.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Bills, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 32.6 per game) last year.

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