Michael Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Michael Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Michael Wilson

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Cardinals being a big -11.5-point underdog in this week's game.
Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (39.0 per game) this year.
This year, the anemic 49ers pass defense has conceded a staggering 67.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 8th-largest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The model projects the Cardinals to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The 49ers pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.43 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-fewest in football.
When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, San Francisco's LB corps has been excellent this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

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