Michael Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Michael Wilson

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Cardinals are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals offense has played at the 2nd-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season, averaging 26.07 seconds per snap.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has shown poor efficiency versus WRs since the start of last season, conceding 9.00 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in the NFL.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.72 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 5th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.0% pass rate.
The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.
The Washington Commanders safeties project as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.