Michael Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Michael Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Michael Thomas

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-180/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Saints offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The model projects Michael Thomas to earn 8.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Michael Thomas has been a more important option in his offense's passing attack this season (25.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (20.8%).
Michael Thomas has been among the best pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 5.6 receptions per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Saints O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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