Michael Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Thomas

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+126/-162).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Thomas to accrue 7.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Completion% in football (69.7%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (69.7%).
The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the 6th-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.9 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.