Michael Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Michael Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Michael Thomas

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Saints offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The model projects Michael Thomas to earn 8.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Michael Thomas has been a more important option in his offense's passing attack this season (25.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (20.8%).
When talking about air yards, Michael Thomas grades out in the lofty 84th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accruing a remarkable 77.0 per game.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Saints O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Michael Thomas has been among the bottom wide receivers in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 15th percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. WRs since the start of last season, surrendering 7.78 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in football.

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